Cost collapse and weak demand, polyester staple fiber plummeted by more than 10% in November

In November, the domestic polyester staple fiber prices almost fell unilaterally, with only a short-lived weak rebound in the early part of the second half of the period. According to the price test of the business agency, the average domestic spot market price of polyester staple fiber was 7,185 yuan/ton on November 30, which was 11.73% lower than the price at the beginning of the month and 25.00% higher than the same period last year. In the futures market, the main staple fiber futures (2201) at the end of the month closed at 6510, down 10.53% from the beginning of the month.
The main factors affecting the price of domestic polyester staple fiber in November are as follows: First, the cost has fallen sharply. This month, international crude oil prices fell sharply due to the release of oil reserves from the United States and the impact of the spread of the latest mutant strain "Omi Keron". At the end of the month, WTI New York crude oil CFD barely closed below 67, a drop of nearly 20% throughout the month. The prices of raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol have fallen sharply, and both the current and futures prices have fallen by more than 10%; second, the demand is sluggish. The downstream yarn and weaving market orders are still weak. Affected by this, the polyester factory also plans to reduce production by 20% in the second half of the year. The third is the rebound in supply. This month, the domestic electricity curtailment policy was basically cancelled, and the short-fiber maintenance devices in the early stage were restarted one after another, and the start-up rebounded. The tight supply and demand in the early stage improved, and the inventory was slowly accumulated. In addition, the new Fengming Zhonglei staple fiber device has been released in the middle of this month.
Factors affecting prices
In November, domestic PTA prices fluctuated and fell sharply. As of November 30, the average domestic spot market price was 4447 yuan/ton, a 13.21% month-on-month drop and a year-on-year increase of 34.35%. In the futures market, the main PTA futures 2201 at the end of the month closed at 4420 yuan/ton, a drop of 14.27% from the beginning of the month. In November, the international crude oil prices fell sharply, causing the PTA cost end support to collapse. In November, PTA device restart and overhaul coexist, and the current industry operating rate is around 80%. With the continuous restart of overhaul devices, the spot supply is sufficient, and the market maintains a state of accumulated inventory.
In November, domestic ethylene glycol prices fell sharply following the trend of coal. As of November 30, the average price of ethylene glycol in North China was 5241 yuan/ton, down 10.65% from the beginning of the month and up 37.94% year-on-year. In the futures market, 2201, the main force of ethylene glycol futures at the end of the month, closed at 4863 yuan/ton, a drop of 11.28% from the beginning of the month. This month's decline in ethylene glycol is the main theme, and the reason is closely related to the sharp drop in coal prices. The chemical industry market as a whole deviated from the fundamentals under the previous capital manipulation, and excessive fanatical speculation triggered policy intervention. The market gradually returned to rationality. Ethylene prices also weakened slightly, and the cost side was under pressure. The performance of terminal demand orders was not good, PTA continued to gradually enter the inventory cycle, and the production reduction plan of the polyester factory was implemented, but at the same time, there were some equipment maintenance, and the demand side was mixed. However, the current production of ethylene glycol has been at a loss. If the price continues to decline, it will dampen the enthusiasm of enterprises for production, so the downside space is limited.
In November, the domestic pure polyester yarn market quotations steadily fell, and were generally stable. As of November 30, the average spot market price of 32S polyester yarn in Shandong was about 14,825 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from last week, and 100 yuan/ton higher than the price at the beginning of the month (14725 yuan/ton). According to some market participants, the transaction volume has not improved compared with the previous period, and the mentality of trading merchants is mostly weak. The inventory of pure polyester yarn manufacturers continues to increase, and the shipment psychology is strong.
Market outlook forecast
At present, the new mutant strain "Omi Keron" will still seriously affect the crude oil market. Coupled with the release of domestic coal production capacity, the cost of staple fiber raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol will continue to fall. It is expected that polyester staple fiber will remain weak and fluctuating in December. Do not rule out the possibility of a rebound after crude oil stabilizes. Pay attention to the price of raw materials and changes in terminal demand.